JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch., Gold 百分之1.9...-20251007

<p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2QFY26 earnings preview - ultimately, it&#39;s about earnings growth</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">We like Tata Steel and Aegis Logistics going into 2QFY26 earnings, and we expect earnings</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">to be a mixed bag across our coverage. Our key expectations are: a) steelmakers should post</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">strong volume growth, however seasonally soft steel prices should drive lower EBITDA QoQ</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">for JSW/SAIL. We expect TATA Steel to post 15%/39% QoQ/YoY EBITDA growth; b)aluminum producers should benefit from higher LME prices - VEDL should also benefit</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">from higher silver prices, however VEDL’s demerger timeline has been pushed out to March-end next year and will be a key monitorable. Hindalco’s India aluminum business should post</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">QoQ EBITDA growth but we expect Novelis to see a soft 2Q due to tariff headwinds/production disruption (JLR and fire incident at Oswego plant); c) in Logistics, we expect</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">Delhivery’s Service EBITDA margins to decline QoQ largely due to weather disruptions</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(floods) and deferment of demand due to GST rate cuts (3Q to be strong). We expect Aegis</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">Logistics to post ~20% YoY PAT growth driven by steady LPG volumes and lower interest</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">costs. Within our coverage, TATA, JSTL, DELHIVER and AEGISLOG are our</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">preferred picks</span></p><p><br/></p>