JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch, Aluminium 百分之2...-20250130

<p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2Q25 production beat, but achieved pricing a touch soft; retain Overweight</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Key takeaways from the 2Q25 result: 1) Total coal sales (100%-basis) of 8.7Mt were a 15%beat vs our 7.6Mt estimate (20% better at QLD/9% ahead in NSW). 2) Average realized</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">pricing for QLD ($237/t) was 5% below JPMe (75% of PLV) and NSW ($211/t) was 2%below JPMe – we have lowered price realisation in QLD to 76% next quarter and removed</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">our 2% premium to gC NEWC long term). 3) FY25 guidance remains unchanged with unit</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">costs tracking at the lower end of the guidance range ($140-155/t) and RoM production in the</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">upper half of the guidance range. Our EBITDA moves 3%/4% lower in FY25/26 on lower</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">realisations, and our NPV remains broadly unchanged. With the stock trading on a P/NPV of</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">0.75x, we retain our Overweight rating</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">.</span></p><p><br/></p>