宁德时代(300750):产销两旺业绩高增,产能加速扩张-2025年三季度业绩点评

<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp; &nbsp; #核心观点:</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;事件:2025Q1-3公司实现营收2,831亿元,同比+9.3％,归母净利490亿元,同比+36％,扣非净利436亿元,同比+36％;毛利率25.3％,同比-2.9pcts,净利率18.5％,同比+3.5pcts,EPS为11.0元。25Q3公司实现营收1042亿元,同/环比+13％/+11％;归母净利186亿元,同/环比+41％/+12％;扣非净利164亿元,同/环比+36％/+7％;毛利率26％,同/环比-5/+0.2pcts;净利率17.8％,同/环比+3.6/+0.3pcts;符合预期。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;产销两旺助力业绩高增。我们预计25年Q1-3排产超490GWh,Q3排产近190GWh,环比大增20％,主要系动力增长稳定同时储能超预期爆发带动需求持续上行,景气度率先反应至龙头业绩。Q3公司出货180GWh+,结构上动储比约8:2结构稳定、国内外比约7:3,实际确收约165GWh主要系确认周期所致。存货与销售规模同步合理增长,周转率稳定。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;新一轮扩产周期启动。25年至今产能利用率持续提升目前满负荷运行,公司基于对未来动储需求增长确定性判断开启扩产潮,25年底济宁将新增超100GWh最新587Ah储能产能,匈牙利一期落地,西班牙工厂即将启动筹建,印尼项目预计26H1投产,Q3资本开支99亿元同比+33％。预计26年产能将达1TWh+,随产能逐步落地,公司增速有望同步甚至超行业增速。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;盈利稳健,预计稳中有进。会计政策影响毛利率同比下滑;而汇兑损益影响在有效套保下影响较小;减值增长主要体现在存货随规模增长带来的合理增长,矿资源风险已在24年底充分计提。综合单Wh净利近0.1元,基本持平。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;随麒麟等产品占比不断提升,储能系统出货增长,预计公司盈利能力稳中有进。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#盈利预测与评级:</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;我们预计公司2025/2026年营收4416.1亿元/5112.7亿元,归母净利690亿元/802亿元,EPS为15元/18元,对应PE为25倍/21倍,维持&quot;推荐&quot;评级。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#风险提示:</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;行业需求不及预期的风险;全球贸易政策持续恶化的风险等。</p><p><br/></p>