JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore -百分之0.6, Li Carbonate 百分之2.4...-20251112

<p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Notes from Santiago: key takeaways from a week of site visits, corporate &amp; industry</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">meetings in Chile; stay positive on copper exposure &amp; OW Antofagasta</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Last week in Santiago, Chile, we attended investor field trips &amp; management presentations</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">with Antofagasta (OW, Analyst Focus List) &amp; Teck Resources (N, covered by Bill Peterson,link), as well as met with several corporates, including state miner Codelco, Diversfied</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">Miners, mining technology firms, and engineering &amp; consulting firms. Our key takeaways</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">include: 1) increasing project activity could drive further capex inflation in Chile, 2) however,Chile’s overall copper output is likely to remain relatively flat at ~5Mtpa, 3) only modest</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">hopes for regulatory reform improving project timeframes, 4) miners’ technology initiatives</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">are yielding some tangible improvements, but the prospects for new sulphide leaching</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">technologies were more mixed. Overall, this reinforces JPMorgan Commodities Research’s</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">positive outlook for the copper market (link), where they forecast the market is now in a</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">200-300 deficit in both 2025/26 from a ~300kt surplus in 2024. It also reinforces our positive</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">view on the EMEA Copper Miners. Antofagasta (OW, AFL) remains our top pick among the</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">EMEA Copper Miners, with ~30% copper volume growth to 2028/29, while Rio Tinto (OW,Positive Catalyst Watch), which derives ~25% of 2026E EBITDA from copper, is our Top</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">Pick among the Diversified Miners. We also remain OW on First Quantum.</span></p><p><br/></p>