JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之1.2, Gold 百分之1.7...-20251113

<p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2025 CMD First Take: Upside to shareholder returns with revised policy; higher-than-expected capex &amp; cost guidance in focus; stay Overweight</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Our Take - ~20% upside to shareholder returns over FY’26/27, but medium-term capex</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">and AISC guided higher: Gold Fields is hosting its 2025 CMD today (presentation starting</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">13:00 UK Time) and pre-released its presentation (link). Key highlights from the presentation</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">include: 1) Revised shareholder returns policy: GFI revises its shareholder return policy</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">to base dividend of 35% of FCF (before growth capex). Given the strong cash generation, GFI</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">also announced up to $500m additional shareholder returns via dividends/buybacks over the</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">next two years. Details to be announced in 2025 final dividend declaration. 2) Medium-term</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">production &amp; AISC guidance: Management targets mid-term production to 2030 between</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">2.5Moz and 3.0Moz with AISC of ~$1,700/oz. Although production guidance is broadly in</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">line with JPMe and slightly below BBG cons, AISC is ~10-15% higher vs BBG cons for the</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">next five years. 3) Medium-term capex guidance: Management now guides capex to be in</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">the range between $1.9bn and $2.1bn pa from FY26-28 (of which ~$1.8bn on Windfall),which is significantly higher vs JPMe/BBG cons, mostly driven by discretionary and</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;Windfall capex spend. 4) Windfall project: GFI clarifies the timeline for the project where base case is first gold in H1’29 whilst upside to H2’28 first output remains if government approval is received by Q1’26. We had placed GFI on positive Catalyst Watch into this event on potential positive updates with shareholder return policies and mid-term guidance. We expect a mixed reaction given the updated shareholder return policy, however, higher capex and opex. We expect the focus during the CMD this afternoon to be around the higher-than-expected AISC and capex guidance into 2030. Gold Fields trades on mark-to-market 5.1x/4.5x 2026/27E EV/EBITDA, 9% FCF yield. We rate Gold Fields Overweight.</span></p><p><br/></p>