JPM-Gold Fields Ltd H125 trading statement：HEPS AISC miss vs JPMe Consensus...-20250804

<p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="">Our Take: Gold Fields has published a trading statement ahead of H1</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25 resultson 22 nd Aug. GFI guides H1</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25 HEPS USc109-121sh(mid-pt: $1.15/sh), -8% vsJPMe &amp; -17% vs Bloomberg Consensus (albeit only three contributors). Q2</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25attributable gold output of 585koz is in-line vs JPMe. Speciifically, Salares Norteproduced 73koz Au Eq, -13% vs JPMe. Ramp up continued through the winterperiod to date &amp; Mgmt reiterated that the mine is on track to reach commercialproduction in Q3</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25. 2025 guidance for volumes, capex, &amp; opex are all unchanged.GFI guides to higher gold production and sales in H2</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25 due to ramp up at SalaresNorte (JPMe H2</span><span style="">’</span><span style="">25E: 1,185koz). GFI trades on mark to market 4.9x/3.6x2025/26E EV/EBITDA, 8%/13% FCF yield. We are Not Rated on Gold Fields.</span></span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">•Noteworthy Areas: GFI guides H1’25 HEPS USc109-121sh (JPMe: USc125/sh JPMe, 203-236% YoY increase). The YoY increase is driven by higher goldproduction (H1’24: 954koz) and higher gold prices YoY. H1’25 attributablegold production of 1,136koz is in-line JPMe (1,131koz) although AISC$1,682/oz is ahead vs JPMe ($1,608/oz). Higher costs in Q2 are function ofelevated waste stripping at Tarkwa and timing of gold sales. Mgmt guideSalares Norte ramp up progressing with plant operating throughout the winterand expect commercial levels of production in Q3 and steady state productionfrom Q4.</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">•Outlook &amp; Guidance: 2025 guidance for attributable gold production (2.25-2.45Moz, JPMe: 2.3Moz), group capex ($1.5-1.6bn, JPMe:$1.6bn), &amp; AISC($1,500-1,650/oz, JPMe: $1,620/oz) are all unchanged.</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">•Likely changes to consensus: Given H1’25 HEPS was a miss vs JPMe &amp;conensus (albeit, 2025 guidance unchanged), we expect 2025 consensus HEPSto move down by low single digits on the back of this result.</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">•Valuation: GFI trades on mark to market 4.9x/3.6x 2025/26E EV/EBITDA,8%/13% FCF yield. We are not rated</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><span style="font-size: 14px;">•Conference Call Details: none. GFI will report full H1 financial results on 22August.</span></p><p><br/></p>