天赐材料(002709):25H1盈利企稳,龙头效应凸显-2025年半年报业绩点评＆首次覆盖报告

<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp; &nbsp; #核心观点</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;事件:25H1公司实现营收70.3亿元,同比+29.0％,归母净利2.7亿元,同比+12.8％,扣非净利2.3亿元,同比+26.0％;毛利率18.7％,同比-0.19pcts,净利率3.8％,同比-0.6pcts。25Q2公司实现营收35.4亿元,同/环比+18.5％6/+1.5％;归母净利1.2亿元,同/环比-3.9％6/-20.9％;扣非净利1.0亿元,同/环比+17.496/-25.2％;毛利率18.2％,同/环比-0.1/1.0pcts;净利率3.3％,同/环比-0.8.60.9pcts,符合预期。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;下游雷求带动业绩高增。25H1营收规模高增主要系新能源汽车销量持续增长带动动力电池装车量、锂电电解波等原材料出货量快速增长,我们预计期内公司出货同比增长超50％,其中Q2同/环比+45％/+15％。展望后,下需求有望维持强势,同时锂价阶段性的上涨有望提升产品价格水平,公司产能利用率稳步提升,预计全年进一步高增。正极材料业务经历Q2产线调整升级后有望在下半年贡献业绩。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;盈利能力稳健,龙头效应凸显。得益于公司一体化布局及降本增效,公司净利率基本维持4％左右领先行业,行业底部已现。随下游景气度向好,供需格局持续改善,公司作为龙头企业率先受益。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;出海加速,卡位固态关键材料硫化物。期内公司公告拟在摩洛哥投建15万吨电解波与原材料一体化基地;7月公司拟在港交所上市加快全球化布局,提升全球市场影响力。此外,公司现已储备液相法硫化锂生产技术,硫化物固态电解质处于中试阶段,积极进行送样测试。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#盈利预测与评级</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;投资建议:公司是全球锂电电解波产品龙头企业,现已打通从六氟磷酸锂、添加剂等上游原材料至电解液的一体化布局,实现了技术、成本、规模等方面的全面领先,经历近两年行业周期后,出洁见底,行业随需求有望重回高增。此外,公司已布局正极材料一体化、粘结剂等第二增长曲线,同时具备波相法化锂技术卡位全固态电池,未来可期。预计公司2025-2027年营收分别为175/223/266亿元:归母净利分则为914/19亿元,EPS0.5、0.7、1.0元/股对应PE43x/28x/21x。首次盖给予&quot;推荐&quot;评级。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#风险提示</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;行业竞争加剧、全球贸易形势复杂多变、原材料价格上等风险</p><p><br/></p>