弘元绿能(603185):储能产品首次亮相,光储一体驱动海外业务增长-点评报告

<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp; &nbsp; #核心观点：1、公司首次发布储能产品，覆盖户用、工商业、微电网/移动储能及虚拟电厂等多元应用场景，HD3600户用低压储能系统具备3600W输出功率和13.8kWh系统容量。2、依托全产业链协同体系，构建光储一体化解决方案，打开组件市场成长空间。3、与无锡尚德联合亮相，尚德拥有37年海外分布式项目经验，有望加速公司海外业务发展。4、公司为光伏一体化成本领军者，有望率先在行业扭亏为盈，迎来业绩拐点。5、货币资金加交易性金融资产合计79亿元，经营管理能力优秀，具备较强行业风险抵御能力。6、公司通过限制性股票激励和员工持股计划，解锁条件为2025-2027年营业收入增长不低于40%/50%/60%或净利润扭亏为盈并同比增长10%。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#盈利预测与评级：预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润为9.4/14/17.7亿元，同比扭亏为盈、增长49%、增长26%；对应PE为27/18/14倍。维持“买入”评级。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#风险提示：反内卷政策推进不及预期风险、光伏行业价格波动风险。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;本报告摘要不保证其100%准确性，如有疑问，请阅读正文文件。</p><p><br/></p>