鹏辉能源(300438):储能电芯弹性最大标的,用高经营杠杆迎接景气周期-深度研究

<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp; &nbsp; #核心观点：</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1、公司历史业绩与储能行业景气度高度相关。2022年欧洲户储需求爆发时，公司归母净利润同比上升244%至6.28亿元，展现出强劲业绩弹性。2023至2024年行业下行周期中，因行业通缩减值及新投产能利用率低迷导致的折旧压力，公司业绩承压。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2、公司是A股锂电池中“含储量”最大的标的。2025年上半年，公司储能电芯业务占营收的62%。随着2025年10月4GWh 100Ah户储电芯投产，公司总储能产能达到44GWh，其中大储24GWh，小储20GWh。在目前储能供不应求的背景下，闲置的大储产能已逐步实现满产。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3、新周期中，公司有望释放高业绩弹性。本轮周期中大储需求旺盛，户储也于2025年第四季度看到欧洲、亚非拉、澳洲市场的景气度回升。大储、小储均有望释放价格弹性。公司作为储能电芯弹性最大标的，以高经营杠杆叠加大储放量，有望进一步释放业绩弹性。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4、随着高价库存出清及规模效应显现，公司“量增利升”的逻辑有望兑现。2025年第三季度，公司单季度储能电池出货达6.74GWh，实现归母净利润2.03亿元，创历史单季度盈利新高。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#盈利预测与评级：</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;预计2025-2027年公司营业收入为110.04、206.10、287.18亿元，归母净利润为3.10、17.37、26.22亿元。维持“买入”评级。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;#风险提示：</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1、全球储能需求增速不及预期的风险。公司的业绩修复弹性高度依赖于下游储能市场的扩容。若全球储能装机需求增速放缓，将对公司的大储及户储产品出货量造成直接压力，进而影响规模效应的释放。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2、行业竞争加剧导致盈利能力修复不及预期的风险。当前储能赛道参与者众多，若行业价格战竞争加剧，公司可能面临毛利率承压的风险，从而延缓公司业绩反转的节奏。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3、原材料价格波动及存货减值风险。目前电芯原材料价格已有上涨趋势，若未来原材料价格再次出现大幅波动，公司可能面临高价库存跌价准备计提的风险，对当期利润表产生扰动。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4、产能利用率提升不及预期及折旧摊销压力的风险。公司前期资本开支较大，当前固定资产折旧摊销金额处于高位。若下游订单增长不及预期，导致新增大储产能无法实现有效爬坡，公司将面临由于开工率不足导致的单瓦折旧成本过高、无法通过规模效应摊薄固定成本的风险。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;本报告摘要不保证其100%准确性，如有疑问，请阅读正文文件。</p><p><br/></p>