江波龙(301308)国产存储模组龙头迎来涨价周期-首次覆盖报告

<p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">投资要点</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">投资建议</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:</span><span style="font-family:宋体">首次覆盖江波龙（</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">( 301308.SZ)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，给予“买入”评级。我们预计公司</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025E/2026E/2027E </span><span style="font-family:宋体">营业收入分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">239.95/306.18/381.50 </span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿元，同比增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">37.4%/27.6%/24.6%;</span><span style="font-family:宋体">归母净利润分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">11.69/21.01/22.53</span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿元，同比增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">134.4%/79.8%/7.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，对应市盈率分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">95.0/52.8/49.3</span><span style="font-family:宋体">倍。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">业务情况</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:1)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">江波龙是国内规模最大的综合性存储模组厂商</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">,</span><span style="font-family:宋体">产品覆盖</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">NANDFlash </span><span style="font-family:宋体">及</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">DRAM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">存储产品，主要面向消费级、企业级及工规级应用。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2)2025</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">9</span><span style="font-family:宋体">月</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">14</span><span style="font-family:宋体">日，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Micron</span><span style="font-family:宋体">宣布上调存储产品价格</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">20%-30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，紧接其后</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">9</span><span style="font-family:宋体">月</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">22</span><span style="font-family:宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Newdaily</span><span style="font-family:宋体">报道</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Samsung</span><span style="font-family:宋体">宣布上调</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">LPDDR4X</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">LPDDR5/5X</span><span style="font-family:宋体">等移动</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">DRAM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">产品合约价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">15%-30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，同时将</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">NAND Flash</span><span style="font-family:宋体">合约价上调</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">5%-10%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">。之后</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">10</span><span style="font-family:宋体">月</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">23</span><span style="font-family:宋体">日，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">SK Hynix</span><span style="font-family:宋体">官宣</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025Q4 DRAM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">与</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">NAND Flash </span><span style="font-family:宋体">合约价最高上调</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">3)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">服务器市场</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">HBM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">市场持续向好。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Market Research Future</span><span style="font-family:宋体">数据显示</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">,2024</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年全球 </span><span style="font-family:Calibri">HBM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">市场规模达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">56.1</span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿美元，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2034</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年预计增长至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">570.9</span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿美元，预计</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2024-2034</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年复合增长率达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">26.1%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，长期成长趋势确定。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">有别于市场的认识</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:</span><span style="font-family:宋体">市场普遍认为服务器是主要需求，实际上</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">带动智能手机正在进入升级周期，智能手机和服务器双重拉动本次存储涨价，持续性有望超越市场预期。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">关键假设点</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:1</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）我们预测</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025-2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年公司总营收同比增速约为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">37.4%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">27.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">24.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，其中，嵌入式存储作为公司核心业务，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025-2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年收入增速约为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">44.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">33.9%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">28.9%;2)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">公司通过优化产品结构，毛利率从</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2024</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">19.0%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">20.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">股价表现的催化剂</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">存储升级周期仍在持续，预计</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2026</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年新款机型存储参数提升</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">,</span><span style="font-family:宋体">将会进一步推动存储价格的上涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">;</span><span style="font-family:宋体">服务器算力持续升级有望带动</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">HBM</span><span style="font-family:宋体">相关需求维持长期景气。风险提示</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:1</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）行业周期性波动风险</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">;2</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）市场竞争加剧风险</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">;3)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">技术迭代不及预期</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px">&nbsp;</span></p><p><br/></p>