蓝思科技(300433)折叠屏或成为iPhone创新焦点-首次覆盖报告

<p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">投资要点</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">首次覆盖蓝思科技（</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">300433.SZ)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，给予“买入”评级。我们预计公司</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025E/2026E/2027E</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">营业收入分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">906.57/1128.37/1349.03</span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿元，同比增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">29.7%/24.5%/19.6%;</span><span style="font-family:宋体">归母净利润分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">54.24/67.05/79.31</span><span style="font-family:宋体">亿元，同比增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">49.7%/23.6%/18.3%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，对应市盈率分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">26.2/21.2/17.9</span><span style="font-family:宋体">倍。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">业务介绍</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:</span><span style="font-family:宋体">蓝思科技是全球智能终端全产业链一站式精密制造解决方案服务商，公司主要聚焦手机玻璃加工，同时具备多种材料的整合能力。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">1</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）随着</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">手机步入创新周期，尤其是</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2026</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年折叠屏产品有望推出，我们预计这将给公司业绩带来较大的推动。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Omdia</span><span style="font-family:宋体">与</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Canalys</span><span style="font-family:宋体">数据显示，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2024</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年全球折叠屏手机销量已达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">1530</span><span style="font-family:宋体">万台。我们预计</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2026</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">首款折叠屏手机推出后销量有望达到</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">1400</span><span style="font-family:宋体">万台。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">在</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Al</span><span style="font-family:宋体">眼镜领域，蓝思科技为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">RokidGlasses</span><span style="font-family:宋体">提供从核心零部件到整机组装的全方位生产服务，未来有望在智能眼镜赛道抢占先发优势。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">3</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）除此之外，公司在人形机器人领域亦有布局</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:2025</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年蓝思科技承接灵犀</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">X2</span><span style="font-family:宋体">机器人整机组装业务，并深度参与头部模组、关节模组、拟人十字轴交叉手腕、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">OmniHand</span><span style="font-family:宋体">灵巧手及夹爪等核心部件的研发与制造，为公司具身智能业务开辟了第二成长曲线。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">有别于大众的认识</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:1)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">市场普遍认为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">标准版的销量占比远高于</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Pro</span><span style="font-family:宋体">版本，但近三年</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">Pro</span><span style="font-family:宋体">版本销售占比从</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">65.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">77.4%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，市场需求升级趋势显著。因此 </span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">折叠屏机型一旦推出，有望填补这一高端机型市场的需求缺口。</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">由于</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">折叠屏产品的推出节奏落后于行业竞品，市场普遍对其接受度存有担忧。我们发现三星、华为、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">vivo</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、小米等品牌的折叠屏机型销量与</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">ASP</span><span style="font-family:宋体">成正相关，而</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">手机的</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">ASP</span><span style="font-family:宋体">显著高于其他品牌。我们认为，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">iPhone</span><span style="font-family:宋体">折叠屏的推出有望凭借其品牌溢价与高</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">ASP</span><span style="font-family:宋体">优势，实现超预期的市场表现。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px"><span style="font-family:宋体">关键假设</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">:1</span><span style="font-family:宋体">）我们预测</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025-2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年公司总营收同比增速约为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">29.7%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">24.5%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">19.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">，其中，智能手机与电脑类作为公司核心业务，</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025-2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年收入增速约为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">30.0%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">25.5%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">20.0%;2)</span><span style="font-family:宋体">公司凭借产品结构优化、上游材料环节垂直整合及全球化产能布局降本等举措，公司毛利率将整体保持稳定。我们预测</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">2025-2027</span><span style="font-family:宋体">年公司毛利率分别为</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">16.1%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">15.9%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri">15.8%</span><span style="font-family:宋体">。</span></span></p><p><span style=";font-family:宋体;font-size:14px">&nbsp;</span></p><p><br/></p>