紫光国微(002049):Q2业绩拐点已现,特种集成电路龙头再起航-点评报告

<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp; &nbsp; #核心观点</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;事件:公司发布25年半年报,2025H1实现营收30.47亿元(YoY+6.07％),归母净利6.92亿元(YoY-6.18％)。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;25Q2业绩拐点已现,预计Q3业绩增速更优:2025H1营收30.47亿元(YoY+6.07％),归母净利6.92亿元(YoY-6.18％),扣非后归母净利6.53亿元(YoY+4.39％)。其中25Q2营收20.21亿(YoY+16.68％,QoQ+97.00％),归母净利5.73亿(YoY+32.92％,QoQ+380.10％)。考虑到Q1订单的确认周期和24Q3业绩低基数的特点,预计25Q3收入和业绩增速将同比走阔。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;分产品来看,公司集成电路业务下游需求回暖,市场拓展顺利,25H1收入14.69亿元(YOY+18.09％)。智能安全芯片业务持续深耕安全芯片,全面发力汽车电子业务,但因市场竞争激烈,收入13.95亿元(YOY-5.85％);石英晶体业务受益于下游蓬勃发展,收入1.51亿元(YoY+35.78％)。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;毛利率韧性较强。公司综合毛利率55.56％,同比减少2.39pct,Q2毛利率56.3％,同比减少1.8pct;其中集成电路毛利率71.12％,同比下降3.44pct。在集成电路电路降价压力下,公司提质增效,特种业务毛利率仍维持高位。智能安全芯片毛利率44.16％,同比下降3.65pct,主要因产品产品价格下降叠加新品种尚未形成规模效应所致。石英晶体业务毛利率11.13％,同比下降4.06pct。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;期间费用率维持平稳。25年H1公司期间费用率30.8％,YoY+0.8pct,总体维持平稳。其中销售费用率因业务增长、扩展市场同比上涨1.6pct,至4.7％;因营收增长带来规模效应,研发费用率、管理费用率分别为21.5％和4.9％,同比减少1.0pct和0.6pct。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;生产交付节奏加快,订单陆续交付。公司25H1存货19.4亿元,较期初减少1.7％,其中在产品5.2亿元,较期初增加36.4％,公司生产节奏有所加速;发出商品3.3亿元,较期初减少20.6％,或意味着产品出库速度加快,下游需求向好。合同负债端,25H1为2.08亿元,较期初减少26.8％,订单陆续交付,结转至收入。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;股份回购已完成,股权激励落地有望提速。截至25年7月11日,公司23年和25年已累计回购公司股票约948.6万股,总金额约8亿元,用于股权激励。我们预计公司股权激励方案或将于Q3落地,并有效提升核心骨干员工积极性,进而促进公司持续增长。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;产品持续更新迭代,多领域开花结果。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;特种集成电路方面。FPGA及系统级芯片持续领跑行业,用户群持续拓展,新一代高性能产品批量交付。高端AI＋视觉感知、中高端MCU等产品研制进展顺利,将进入公司未来主控芯片产品系列。宇航领域25年起,发展从1-10,新推出宇航用FPGA、回读刷新芯片、存储器、总线接口等产品,推广顺利且获核心用户批量应用。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;智能安全芯片方面。第二代汽车域控芯片TH6系列已导入多家Tier1和主机厂,一代＋二代芯片年出货量已达数百万颗,未来将受益于车载MCU的国产化进程。即将发布的IPhone17air或采用eSIM,国内终端厂商将快速跟进,eSIM增长迎破冰。公司eSIM产品已导入多家头部手机厂商,先发优势明显。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;石英晶体方面,小型化、高频化、高精度产品研发不断推进,公司竞争优势逐步凸显,有望逐步打开在汽车电子、低空经济、人工智能、AI算力模型、光模块等众多领域的应用。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;特种芯片封装线顺利投产,高毛利率有支撑。报告期内,公司自建的高可靠芯片封装线顺利投产,有助于减少对外部封装环节的依赖,高毛利率现状有望持续。与此同时,公司的供货保障能力得到了进一步强化,产品从生产到交付的周期或将呈现缩短态势。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;# 盈利预测与评级</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;投资建议:我们看好25年特种行业景气度回升对公司集成电路收入的拉动以及汽车电子业务第二增长曲线的逐步成型。预计公司2025-2027年净利润分别为18.03/23.59/29.86亿元,EPS分别为2.12/2.78/3.51元,当前股价对应PE分别为38/29/23倍。维持&quot;推荐&quot;评级。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;# 风险提示</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; color: rgb(108, 107, 107); font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant-emoji: normal; line-height: 25.2px; text-wrap-mode: wrap;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;风险提示:特种电路行业需求不及预期的风险;新产品市场开拓不及预期的风险。</p><p><br/></p>